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LIKELY ECONOMIC AND OTHER IMPACTS OF A HARD BREXIT 

No major country has ever left the European Union or similar trading bloc. A recent report by the independent (King’s College London based) research group, The UK in a Changing Europe, stated that “no deal will not get Brexit done” and instead would be the start of a “period of prolonged uncertainty for citizens, workers and businesses”. Unfortunately, in terms of securing a proper UK/EU trade deal (to replace the current trading arrangements), the UK is running out of time. At present, during the current so-called transition period, we are trading with the EU on the same level 'single market customs union' basis that we did when we were still in the EU. Sadly that privileged position will come to an abrupt end at the end of this year (when the transition period expires), unless a really good, mutually beneficial new trading relationship is negotiated. That is looking increasingly unlikely – and the UK government is currently refusing to extend the negotiation period. A 'no deal' exit is therefore very likely to occur - and that will cause huge economic damage to the UK, including large numbers of additional job losses (over and above the economic impact of coronavirus) and substantial additional poverty. The only really practical way of ensuring that the negotiation period is extended is by extending the transition period – and in order to do that, the government would, in practical terms, need to agree to such an extension by the end of next month, June, 2020

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